Isn’t That the Whole Damn Truth?

I haven't -- and won't -- watch or listen to a single second of "Hurricane Dean coverage," principally because over the preceding months I've cut my "news" intake to nearly nil and am still working on getting it lower. I'm interested in the signal, so I've got to ignore the noise. More on that, below. I'm still somewhat addicted to some of the news commentary on a handful of blogs, but I'm pretty choosy. Most…Read More

Fooled Again?

From Bernie Scaeffer's Monday Morning Outlook (free subscription) that just hit my inbox. In other news from the sentiment front, mutual-fund investors have been feverishly withdrawing assets out of U.S. mutual funds. According to recent TrimTabs data, the year-to-date outflow from domestic funds ($8 billion) is on pace to hit its greatest level since 2002. Note that the 2002 fund outflows occurred as the U.S. market was carving out a bottom after a prolonged bear…Read More

The “Bright Side” of Doomsday

I often observe human beings who are barely able to contain their pleasure at any sign of trouble that signals they may turn out to be right. Here's an example many will recognize: the thinly and poorly veiled glee felt and expressed by many on the left with each new report of things going south in Iraq. Now, I certainly think we should get our asses out of there, immediately, but if that's not going…Read More

Slippery Slopes

I've cut way back on the amount of technical / philosophical material I post here. The reasons are multiple. For one, there are so many much better at it than I. Second, I have other interests and some of those are in the forefront of my thinking most of the time. Third, I have this nagging sense that much of what I read in the philosophical arena is mostly back fill; that is, it attempts…Read More

Randomness Watch

First an email just out, which, I hadn't written with the intent of publishing, but then right on the heels of that I saw something that just made me shake my head and follows right along from what I'm talking about. The email was to Billy Beck, following up on this entry. Two things that come to mind. I've copied Kyle for shits & giggles. First, this reminds me of a local radio talk show…Read More

Trading Psychology

Here's something to think about that I think has implications beyond trading. It's an obvious fact that to make money in trading -- or anything, for that matter -- one must be right. Or, at least, mostly right; more right than wrong with the difference being a gross margin of sorts. From there, I think many people make what I believe is an erroneous leap: that to be enormously successful one must be right most…Read More

In the Midst of Panic

Probably not what everyone is thinking, right now, but if I'm going to keep my head about me and keep a market perspective on the market, then I have to consider that when some people sell out of fear, panic, to preserve diminishing profits, or to stop losses, there's always someone on the other side of that trade. So the question arises -- and one should always, always try to discern the motivations behind each…Read More

Why… this? We had just hauled this young woman off in handcuffs, mostly for helping her boyfriend. She was going to lose her kids, her house, her future. And it hit me--all of this is for what? What are we doing here? We arrest one drug dealer, and two take his place. I watched while we ransacked parents' homes because their kids were dealing. I saw the looks on their faces, knowing that their kid's…Read More

Societal Evolution

Ha! Billy comes up with a damn fine analogy to illustrate the nature of the political wrangling that transpires whenever someone proposes a new tax or a tax increase. Proposed victims frantically nominate others at the edge of the herd. I won't soon forget it. And I'll probably be compelled to remember it from here on, each time I watch one of those nature shows with predictors stalking herds of whatever. A quick thought: wouldn't…Read More

A Warm Note in Passing

This story has been around for a few days, but I've yet to see it in anything major. Perhaps not enough time has passed necessary to concoct the standard set of talking points, "explanations," equivocations, euphemisms, qualifications and so on that go hand-in-hand with maintaining propping up beliefs in illusions. But let me ask you this, in light of all that you see, read, and hear surrounding global warming. What if you were suddenly told…Read More

Awful News

I hated to see this upon returning from my morning walk. Looking back, Geoff Loyns was my favorite mentor when I was learning to fly hang-gliders. World record holder and holder of many site records and many hang-gliding flights in excess of 100 miles -- he flew 193 miles out and return back in 1998 in the Owens Valley, a world record that stood for years. He also tumbled there once, sometime after, and had…Read More

Economic Woes

George Reisman has up an excellent primer on the recent hubbub all over the news concerning the housing bubble, sub-prime meltdown, credit expansion and how they are all related. Required reading. That said, from the standpoint of an investor (in both R/E and the stock market) and trader (options), as well as business owner, it's always a good idea to distinguish between the is and the ought, and never to assume that when things are…Read More

On the Record

I'll be perfectly happy to be declared wrong; and indeed, I claim no special certainty in the matter (nobody does), but for my money (and it's exactly where my mouth is), all this fear being stoked up about the markets, credit bubble, sub-prime meltdown, and so on, presents what I think is an enormous buying opportunity. Perhaps not a summer of '98 buying opportunity (you'll recall the scary 10% plunge that scared all the weak…Read More

Home Runs: Like a lot of things people don’t really understand

Lots of what I easily consider Bullshit surrounding Bonds' fabulous achievement. If Bonds did use steroids, which appears pretty likely, I doubt it helped him hit home runs (perhaps other areas). I'd sooner be tempted to guess that it hurt, just as I'd guess they would degrade Tiger Woods' huge drives off the tee. Art De Vany is right. He's right here. And he's right here. As well this exhaustive, mathematically and statistically rigorous 45-pg…Read More

Contributing to the Social Injustice

At the age of 46, I find myself for the first time in my life in need of corrective lenses. And it's not even that bad. I just began to notice eye strain while looking at a monitor all day, and reading. In fact, from about a foot out, vision is still 20/20 and curiously, it seems to have improved over the years. I can read the smallest stuff way far away with no problem.…Read More

Lunch at the Googleplex

Bea & I picked up two of my teenage nephews from the airport yesterday for an annual trip out to the west coast from Kentucky, or someplace thereabouts. Then we proceeded up to the Google complex right near the Shoreline Amphitheater where we met Bea's niece, a Stanford grad and now very happy employee of Google. I think the experience was a bit lost on the boys. Google is something that gives them search results,…Read More