Archives for April 2020
OH MY GOD!!!
The contrived crisis is melting away, and so soon, with only a fraction of the hoped-for deaths, because no number of deaths is enough if it makes someone with Trump Derangement Syndrome feel like it will tarnish and harm President Donald J. Trump (the next President of the US, too).
I give you the daily New Cases bar charts for USA, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the UK. The top six countries with the most cases and most deaths, globally. This presumes that a Democrat leftie with Trump Derangement Syndrome can actually read and understand them, and the general notion of Bell-shaped curves. I know that’s asking a lot.
Stephan Guyenet, PhD, of course. I took him to task in the last post. There, for hyping the hype and panicking the panicked. Plus, for showing his Trump Derangement Syndrome hand by touting an op-ed piece by Joe Biden (LOLLOLLOLLOL). I see such motivations coming miles away. I can smell it.
At the outset, he was all about exponential explosions with positive feedback (not understanding that all viral epidemics always follow a bell-like curve, no exceptions), because that’s the biggest bang for the buck in terms of the greatest hysteria and fear (and hopefully blame for Trump). There was no computer model of more and more death and mayhem that didn’t fire off his reward centers like a Big Mac dipped in chocolate and rolled in sprinkles.
Sadly, that didn’t come to pass, so time to change the goal posts to how many MORE LIVES!!! could have been saved had Trump issued a “nationwide lockdown.”
Surprise, surprise. The earlier in the epidemic a country locked down, the fewer people have died.
The US never implemented a nationwide lockdown.https://twitter.com/whsource/status/1249827508473610240
Let’s excuse this PhD’s utter lack of knowledge of civics and Constitutional limits on the federal (nationwide) government, for now. “Nationwide lockdown.” Hahahaha.
It’s all based on this silly little bit of abject garbage tweet by some Blue Checkmark named John Burn-Murdoch. (What, is he hyphenating in his husband’s last name? OK, cheap shot.)
After two other tweets of charts with an R-Squared of 0.02!!! he hits the Mother Load with a chart with an R-Squared of 0.15!!! He writes:
But lockdown timing exhibits a much stronger relationship.
Countries that locked down earlier in their outbreaks subsequently had much lower daily death tolls than those that locked down later (accounting for when outbreaks began)
Lockdowns, and their timings, matter. Who knew?https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249821596199596034
Now, before I get back to the persnickety Guyenet, PhD, let’s look at what R-Squared means.
R-squared (R2) is a statistical measure that represents the proportion of the variance for a dependent variable that’s explained by an independent variable or variables in a regression model. Whereas correlation explains the strength of the relationship between an independent and dependent variable, R-squared explains to what extent the variance of one variable explains the variance of the second variable. So, if the R2 of a model is 0.50, then approximately half of the observed variation can be explained by the model’s inputs.https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/r-squared.asp
Let’s bottom line that.
It depends on your research work but more then 50%, R2 value with low RMES value is acceptable to scientific research community, Results with low R2 value of 25% to 30% are valid because it represent your findings.https://www.researchgate.net/post/what_is_the_acceptable_r-squared_value
So, first he gives two worthless charts, both with R2 values of 2% and then calls one with 15% a “much stronger relationship.” Well, relatively speaking, I guess crap is inversely stronger than two helpings of abject crap. Or, crap is just crap.
Stephan Guyenet: “Surprise surprise.”
See how Trump Derangement Syndrome takes you from once being careful, reserved, conservative, and honest to dumber?
Of course I had to reply in a couple of tweets.
Every day it’s going to get tougher and tougher for you to find stuff to confirm your Trump Derangement Syndrome-induced bias and lay claim to your faux moral superiority. Virtually every country is now over the hump at a fraction of deaths the “models” predicted.
Hyped fear & hysteria have peaked too. I see it even here in the irrationally fearful Thailand. People are exhausted of the bullshit promoted by “morally superior” elites like you. Soon, the media will move onto economic panic, which of course was created by this abject bullshit.
Too much dumb and dumber, too little time.
Previously: MY MUSINGS ON THE CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19)
That post is primarily about what I saw as driving it when I called bullshit from day one, and knew in my gut I was right and would be right—because virus don’t care; virus don’t give a shit. It’s: politics, internet, social media, and smartphones. I’ve taken to calling much of it smartphone epidemiology.
This could be a series of posts, I’m not sure. Data changes day to day so data driven posts are outdated in 24 hours. There’s more to say about the fucktardedness, however, so we’ll see. I promise to make it entertaining and give you ample opportunity to laugh at the expense of others.
In a perfect world, everyone who advocated for this shut down insanity would starve to death. Justice.
You see, it’s not just a matter of “start it back up,” the bla bla out of all these talking head mouths who have no concept of the complexity and capital that must be serviced to maintain a supply chain that gets myriad goods to point of sale at cost to consumer that’s affordable. Not to mention, crops have growing cycles and seasons, ignoramuses, and you’ve killed the shit in its prime, fools.
President Trump said Friday that he wants to speed up help to the nation’s farmers, and farmers say it can’t come soon enough. Dairy farmers in Pennsylvania are pouring milk down the drain because of dried-up demand from closed restaurants and schools, while others stand by helplessly as their crops rot in the field.
At Kern Carpenter’s farm in Homestead, Florida, farmhands pick a few pallets — but the rest will wither on the vine.
“I’m just a small farm compared to some and I probably have in the neighborhood of 60,000 to 70,000 boxes that I’ll leave in the field,” Carpenter said.
About 80% of tomatoes grown in Florida go to the food service industry. But with restaurants drastically scaled back, and hotels, cruise ships, and even schools closed, demand evaporated at a time when the fields are bursting with produce.
“There’s not enough customers for all the tomatoes, beans, squash, everything just raised in Homestead, we’re all struggling,” Carpenter said.
You stupid fucking ignorant fools, advocates in any way for this insanity on the basis of faux concern, virtue signaling, and moralizing for LIVES!!! I wanna puke.
Well, if you don’t starve to death, I hope I at least get to laugh in your fucked faces when your grocery carts cost $1,000+ at checkout. I base that on a complex model I just cooked up in an Excel spreadsheet, so fear that it may be right. It’s a COMPUTER MODEL!!!
A Fuck ’em, egg on their faces update. And it’s going to get worse. More eggy. Just as I said Hillary would never be president, back in 1992, and in Nov of 2015 said Trump wins the whole thing (and people scoffed at me on both scores); and just as I called every single presidential election from Regan in ‘80 when I was 20, to now, and many other trends and outcomes, I have a certain spidey sense.
I don’t look at data. Yes, I share data here and elsewhere to show I’m probably right (i.e., “confirmation bias”). But I always go all in, based on nothing but human interest in something and their attitudes and reactions to something. Or, I just go with my gut. So of course back in 1992 I had nothing to tell me how Hillary would be regarded in 2015, but I could see what a shill, lying, unfuckable (not even Bill), abject cunt she was. I went all in. Never president. Never will be.
Importantly: I almost never do this. I can’t stand being a data, modeling, equivocating, and vacillating weasel. So, I only get uppity and forthright like I have been with #CoronaHoax when 1) I’m fucking sure; and 2) there is a discrete outcome in the future. I don’t do this, this stalwart, when it’s open ended, the perpetual ‘more study is required’. In other areas, like a sound, whole food diet, I just advocate for what I judge are best practices and principles and falsify bullshit that comes along. There’s no Grand Prize, though.
Let’s name names; people who contributed to the hysteria and panic, those who should be shamed in the public square, locked up, and stripped of every penny they have, for victim redistribution. This list is of my old friends and friend-ish in the paleo movement, the last people I’d have guessed would swallow the Kool Aide, rebrand it, and pass it around. In order of encounter.
Robb Wolf (who, when taken to task, threatened to punch me…for the third time, then unfriended me on FB ouch…what a punch)
Marty Kendall (does all the excellent Nutrient Optimizer stuff)
Petter Attia, MD (the guy who co-founded NuSi with Gary Taubes, milked it for huge salary with zero results, then quit)
Stephan Guyenet, PhD (used to have a critical, conservative, discerning mind until #TDS)
Kurt Harris, MD (well, thin skinned little weasel; radiologist in the dark)
Andreas Eenfeldt, MD (very tall)
I’ll add another point. Each one of them looked at the data, statistics, and modeling dutifully. They listened to the experts, consulted with peers, etc. They also did what I did and stuck a wet finger in the air and noted the hysteria. They each chose to fuel the flames of concern, hysteria, panic, irrationality, and non-proportionality.
I called bullshit on all of that, and I knew I was right, and I did that because it’s refreshing. And I like to make the elite hubristic feel fucking stupid. That’s the difference.
You see, they’re as afraid of being wrong as people are fucktardedly hysterical on a global scale, now. That’s why they waffle and vacillate. Plausible deniability. I won’t give it to them.
What they did, instead is endeavor to bolster the new, internet passion/fashion for faux concern, virtue singling, smartphone epidemiology, and moralizing by SCIENCE!!!
So here’s the point of all this. A perspective, all data from the CDC. In a simple chart (see above). I’m going to quote the PowerLine post surrounding it, because it’s good and short.
The Wuhan virus appears to be peaking, both globally and in the U.S. The much-maligned University of Washington IHME model says that U.S. deaths should have peaked today, and are expected to decline hereafter. Given that model’s track record, no one is taking it to the bank. But it is an opportune moment to see where we stand today, in terms of fatalities, in the context of other diseases.
I have posted this chart, now updated with today’s numbers, several times before. It is simple: it shows, from left to right, the average number of annual deaths attributed to the seasonal flu, worldwide, according to the World Health Organization; the number of global COVID-19 deaths to date, per the same organization; the number of deaths attributed to seasonal flu in the U.S. two years ago, the 2017-2018 season; and U.S. COVID-19 deaths to date.
Worldwide, the COVID-19 fatalities add up to just under 20% of an average flu season. In the U.S., COVID-19 fatalities to date are 26% of the number that we suffered just two flu seasons ago. I am not sure why these numbers are not more widely known. They seem relevant to me.
Crudely speaking, if we assume that the U.S. is around 50% of the way through the COVID-19 epidemic, we might expect something like 33,000 fatalities, equal to an average seasonal flu year. An inevitable second round of infections after our governments finally let people go back to work, and out in public, may raise that number, but no one I know of has tried to guess to what extent. Still, any way you look at it, it is hard to see how COVID-19 deaths will exceed the flu fatalities we experienced two years ago. And that was barely a news story.
A final thought: What will happen when the catastrophic shutdown orders under which most of us have been living are finally lifted, in May or June? Since sheltering in place was only intended to delay the virus’s spread, not to prevent it, we should assume that COVID infection and death numbers will rise dramatically. But what if they don’t? Won’t that be strong evidence that the states’ extreme shutdown measures were not needed in the first place? Don’t expect any politicians to make the point, but I think the answer is Yes.
Here’s the link to the post: THE PANDEMIC: WHERE WE STAND NOW
You don’t suborn and support the greatest economic and future-prospect harm to BILLIONS of people worldwide on the basis of incomplete, crap, politically-motivated “data” without consequences, just because you have Trump Derangement Syndrome and see an opportunity. This is the worst crime in all of human history, millions might suffer and die from downstream consequences—INDISCRIMINATE OF AGE.
I’ll finish off by saying yea, all of them hate Trump. That is the common theme. In the early days of Jan and Feb, I dubbed it Impeachment 2.0. I am never fooled by base motivations veiled in faux concern. I always see them coming miles away.
Guyenet, because sycophants for his Tweets, for example, couldn’t help but tout an op-ed piece by whoever wrote it for Joe Biden—because he’s off sniffing hair and doesn’t know where he is, again.
And Harris? Hahaha, or 555, as they write in Thailand (‘ha’ is the word for 5). I posted a thing about the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, how some days ago recommended STOP trying contain the uncontainable (as has always been public policy…you separate the at risk).
What can be done to end this epidemic? The answer is herd immunity. Let those who will not die nor become seriously ill from the disease get infected and immune to the disease. Don’t close schools – open them up! Don’t close universities – reopen them! Let those under the age of 65 with no significant health problems go to work. Their risk of death is very close to zero. They become the wall that stops the virus.
Our current strategy of isolating these healthy people from the virus: a. is not working – the virus is still spreading and b. for those who theoretically may be shielded from the virus, they will get exposed later. Our current strategy is actually leading to a prolonged COVID-19 season!
Herd immunity works and despite our current efforts to mess it up, herd immunity will be the ultimate reason the virus dies down. We should promote the concept, not try to stop it. Unlike the influenza epidemics of the past, this virus is not attacking young people. We can use herd immunity to our collective advantage.
Many are more concerned with what is happening to American society than what the virus will do to us medically. Bad government policies are leading to economic destruction, possibly on a scale not ever seen in our country. This is being imposed upon us. State governors seem almost in a race to see who can cause the most dramatic removal of basic constitutional liberties. All of this is reminiscent of Nazi and Communist state control of people.
It seems to be working; with their willing accomplices in the media, Americans at this time are seemingly eager to exchange their freedom for what they believe to be security and safety. What they don’t realize is if this is allowed to continue, they will lose their security, safety and their freedom.
Here’s Kurt Harris, MD’s Tweet stream in response to me posting that.
You can be the judge of Harris, who many told me back when he scurried away that he’s a “thin skinned little weasel.”
With Noah Revoy and Andy Curzon.