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Coronavirus #4: Question The Premise

Previously on Free The Animal:

I’m a fan of Ayn Rand. No, not of those whom I’ve called Randroids (think #NPC droids for Rand) since I first encountered the devout in forums circa 1992 on the Internet.

“What would Rand do?” That’s what those “atheists” say, now.

The context in which I always regarded that woman is that she was Russian, from St. Petersburg, got to America in its heyday, and with English as a second language, managed to craft herself into a New York intellectual who loathed both the left and the right of the day.

Impressive, in my personal book. She had a ton of faults. Who doesn’t?

I’ve read everything she ever wrote and I did it in about a year, 1991, and have read not a word in the 31 ensuing years, unlike her sycophants who’ve read Atlas Shrugged 10+ times. That includes reading all the syndicated columns and newsletters. I’ve read every book about her, owing to my curiosity. I have many quibbles but the VERY ONE THING that hit me and always stayed with me was something she said and wrote all the damn time.

“Check your premises.”

And this is exactly what we are not seeing now, and it ought to stick out like a sore thumb to you; but in fact, almost nobody notices—including those you ought to think should (Fox News, for example? The White House? For example?)

Here’s an actually true premise for you that you can functionally work from and not seem fucktarded: about a half a million people die of the flu globally each and every year, and upwards of 4 million of pneumonia, 2 million, children under 5. It’s the chief cause of death in babies.

…Still not a single death from the ‘rona of a child under 10, globally. Do you fucking understand that? Does this at all affirm what I have said: that old, fat, lazy, TV-rerun-watching old-ass fucks with suck-ass health are the most entitled people on the planet and no number of deaths in service of their “lives” is enough?

Who in their right mind wouldn’t kinda want to see the worst of them kicked down the stairs, finally? Be honest (with yourselves, at the very least). I maintain that you can still celebrate all survivors without any cognitive dissonance express or implied.

Ironically, I’m finding that it’s largely the good women who’re waking up the most. The low-T male-chromosome types are still busy white-knighting and virtue signaling, channeling some sorts of desires I care not think about.

When this is over, old folk are going to be held in lower esteem than they probably should be. Justice has its way. It’s too bad that they fell wholly for the panic narrative engineered by means of Impeachment 3.0. You know what I mean.

But here’s the thing. Over the last few weeks we’ve seen the original premise that justified a near global house arrest (I don’t use euphemisms like “distancing” and “shelter”) go from MILLIONS DIE DEATH KILL!!! to, well, less. Then less. Then less and less to where, combined with the asymptomatic and those who have antibodies, starts to looks a lot like the flu—although the faux numbers so far are showing a pretty pathetic flu year. What an apparent wimp, by some comparisons.

But the original premise still remains. You see it all over. Everywhere. From the POTUS to every single talking head on TEEVEE.

Nobody questions the premise. They talk out both sides of their mouths because nobody is willing—from POTUS on down all the way—to simply say that we got fucked and pawned. Which is exactly what happened.

Here’s a good example, this piece in the Los Angeles Times: Hundreds of thousands in L.A. County may have been infected with coronavirus, study finds

The initial results from the first large-scale study tracking the spread of the coronavirus in the county found that 4.1% of adults have antibodies to the virus in their blood, an indication of past exposure.

That translates to roughly 221,000 to 442,000 adults who have recovered from an infection, once margin of error is taken into account, according to the researchers conducting the study. The county had reported fewer than 8,000 cases at that time.

The findings suggest the fatality rate may be much lower than previously thought. But although the virus may be more widespread, the infection rate still falls far short of herd immunity that, absent a vaccine, would be key to return to normal life. (emphasis mine)

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-county

In other words, as more data comes in, it’s looking more and more like the fatality from flu, BUT, we don’t have herd immunity so stay under house arrest.

Well …

  1. You don’t get herd immunity by containing the spread with house arrest of everyone, especially those at little to no quantifiable risk.
  2. Where is the so-called herd immunity for the flu? If it exists, it’s very short-term because a strain just different enough pops up every year.

So do you see how deeply the unquestioned premise is embedded in the psyche? That is the real virus, and it’s quite a killer, as, over time, reality will get its comeuppance and the number of deaths from the downstream consequences of not checking the original premise come home to roost.

Just a couple of examples. Here is Thailand, they’ve outlawed all alcohol sales, even private sales. Now 2 weeks in, and the news reports start popping up of those with long-term alcohol dependency dying of the DTs (delirium tremens). This, in a country of 70 million population, 2,839 cases, 2,430 recoveries, and 50 deaths (23/04/2020). How long will it take for the down-streams of shutting down a modest economy with a paper-thin survive and thrive margins already, to far outpace the “pitiful” death toll from the ‘rona?

Or, in The New York Times: ‘Instead of Coronavirus, the Hunger Will Kill Us.’ A Global Food Crisis Looms. We should question this premise too, but for now…

The world has never faced a hunger emergency like this, experts say. It could double the number of people facing acute hunger to 265 million by the end of this year.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/world/africa/coronavirus-hunger-crisis.html

You can imagine Paul Ehrlich and his anti-civilization sycos getting a long-overdue hardon from that! The’ve been waiting for 52 years!

We know that hunger in the third world is already a thing forever now. But it has also been getting better per capita for a long time. How far is it going to be set back by the agricultural and supply-chain destruction now taking place in order to protect entitled, 1st world old people with so many co-morbidities they’ll be dead inside of a year anyway?

Sorry to be so harsh and crass, and no, I don’t wish ill on your loved ones. But everyone dies of something. Death is a part of life, and this child-like aversion to it at all costs is unbecoming of a truly living human being.

In that vein, notice how, rather than trash the original premise—the fear, panic, and hysterical narrative of mass death and destruction—they’re just mutating it, like a virus. Now, because it’s hard to justify it given the constant degrading of EXPERT PREDICTIONS!!! it just needs touch-up. You have to stay under house arrest until NOVEMBER!!! (coincidence?) because if we don’t we’ll get a SECOND WAVE!!! and by damn, according to THE EXPERTS!!! it’s going to be A LOT WORSE!!! than the 1st wave.

One hopes we’re entering ‘fool me once shame on you; twice, shame on me’ territory.

… I’ve been having an ongoing email-thread discussion with a handful of very smart people (he/she, him/her, they/them). One of them posed a question.

So, given those three examples [Diamond Princess, Theodore Roosevelt, and a pork processing plant in South Dakota…all similar numbers], it looks to me like the infection rate runs at about 15-20 percent of those exposed. (Probably will end up being a lot higher once antibody tests are readily available,) And half who are infected are asymptomatic. And of the half who are symptomatic, the death rate varies with age and co-morbidities. The stat I would like to see is the risk to a, say, 75 yo male with no co-morbidities. The risk factors are always stratified by age, with those in the oldest categories being the most likely to die. But people typically accumulate co-morbidities along with age. So how much risk due to the co-morbidities and how much for simply the age? I’ve seen no accounting for that in any stats I’ve seen. Have you?

And the answer from someone else was so spot on that I got permission to share it, anonymously.

….yes, it seems we have enough raw data now to fairly accurately stratify risks and assign some number to those so we can sequester or protect accordingly. Here’s what I would look at:

1) What is the “actual” rate of infection in a community that has been fully exposed? (see both ships)

2) How many of the infected are asymptomatic? (see both ships and Santa Clara County/Stanford testing) [now, LA County testing as well]

3) Of those with symptoms, how many are serious enough to truly warrant a hospital visit?

4) Of those who visit the hospital, how many warrant admission?

5) Of those, how many warrant ICU beds?

6) Of those, how many warrant a ventilator? Note that the actual ventilator success rate could be pegged at 7%: 80% of those ventilated die after average 20 days in an induced coma. Of those who live, most come off after 3-5 days, often with severe and possibly permanent lung damage. So if we look at “ventilator days” we see 100 successful days (success defined as surviving, often not unscathed) for every 1600 unsuccessful days (defined as death), making it the worst medical intervention in history. Casting out of demons was more effective.

7) Now we look at risk by age and co-morbidity. Age has been shown to be a major factor. Age usually has at least one comorb, but even in those who don’t have comorbs, there is a general linear loss of organ reserve, such that any insult like a flu puts extra pressure on organs that haven’t operated at anywhere near full capacity for decades. Many simply succumb to the weakest link: liver failure, kidney failure, congestive heart failure, aneurysm, etc. Regular flu does this every year. Not saying we should ignore these people, but we don’t shut the economy down over the flu every year.

8) I think the lipidology should not be overlooked in the aged population. How many infections or deaths might be linked to artificial suppression of LDL cholesterol. LDL levels have been shown to have an inverse correlation with infection in some studies. This connection should be examined in all deaths.

9) Of the “younger” people dying, we see two major groups: those with comorbidities, obesity appearing to be the most significant, but diabetes, HBP, asthma, etc. also implicated; and HCWs who have incurred massive viral loads, the likes of which most people walking down the street would never encounter (unless, for example, they rode the NYC subways and didn’t cover up). These people were getting 100X or 1,000X the initial exposure. (not so much now that PPE effectiveness has improved). As is the case with a poison, the dose makes a huge difference. A small viral load and a healthy immune system can cope. A massive viral load and all bets are off.

10) Then we see a few anomalous deaths among younger people. Endurance athletes (did they overtrain to the point of immune compromise?). Vapers (would love to see that identified here). Leaky gut with systemic inflammation as a precursor to cytokine storm? I bet it’s a significant factor.

As you can see, I believe there’s an explanation for 99% of the deaths here (and I’ll allow for the occasional anomaly). Knowing that, I think we could risk stratify and assign particular measures for everyone, from “go about your business as usual and don’t worry about getting infected” to “stay inside for several months until we have achieved herd immunity.”

I have also come to the conclusion that herd immunity through massive exposure is the only way out of this. Both epidemiologically and economically. There is no other way that doesn’t implode the economy for a long time. Waiting for a vaccine? Not going to happen in time to avoid a full-tilt decade(s)-long depression. Until then, find a few meds (remdesivir?) that reduce the death rate among the severely infected. Probably the best defense against foreign insults in this emergent New World Order is herd immunity. This would also allow us to open borders without fear of reigniting the whole thing all over again.

So there you have it. And, more study is required.

… I’ll plug something that makes me boozing money for once that certainly can’t hurt, but perhaps could help should you get the ‘rona and encounter symptoms. The gut makes up 70-80% of our immune system. I’ve been convinced for a long time that Karl Seddon’s unique, patented probiotic (the true magic is in the encapsulation) is truly gut therapeutic and my reason for that is a 5-year history of a 65% reorder rate from customers.


Elixa Probiotic is a British biotech manufacturer in Oxford, UK. U.S. Demand is now so high they’ve established distribution centers in Illinois, Nevada, and New Jersey.

Still, sell-outs happen regularly, so order now to avoid a waiting list.

Richard Nikoley

I'm Richard Nikoley. Free The Animal began in 2003 and as of 2021, contains 5,000 posts. I blog what I wish...from health, diet, and food to travel and lifestyle; to politics, social antagonism, expat-living location and time independent—while you sleep—income. I celebrate the audacity and hubris to live by your own exclusive authority and take your own chances. Read More

28 Comments

  1. ELange on April 23, 2020 at 06:04

    “upwards of 4 million of pneumonia, 2 million, children under 5. It’s the chief cause of death in babies.”

    Source? The premise of it being the chief cause of death in children is still true but WHO puts the number much lower. 15% of all deaths and 808,694 in 2017. Also, it is treatable. Children can be protected from pneumonia, it can be prevented with simple interventions, and treated with low-cost, low-tech medication and care.

    WHO puts flu deaths between 290,000-650,000 so your numbers check there.

    • Richard Nikoley on April 23, 2020 at 06:42

      See the previous post. The Denise Minger one. The source is CDC, with link.



  2. Jared on April 23, 2020 at 08:09

    I honestly don’t understand how this “waiting for a vaccine” idea goes on still unchecked. It’s not even how long it takes. It’s about the fact that we don’t even currently have a flu “vaccine” and we have literally been working on that for decades. Every single study shows little to no effect of the flu “vaccine” on hospitalizations.

    I think this is not common knowledge and there are the idiot hippies who think all vaccines are bad then the money making machine that wants to keep selling new flu shots every year that has marketed and cajoled the rest of the country into thinking the flu shot is a useful product when it probably does very very little if anything. The two sides fight it out and the flu vaccine ends up getting included with real vaccines.

    Maybe coronavirus is different than influenza so maybe this is an easier challenge but it really doesn’t sound like it.

  3. Bret on April 23, 2020 at 08:24

    Mark Sisson mentioned in his latest Sunday email that he used to experience colds frequently when running 30+ miles per week. All that chronic running — something PLHGs likely did only in brief, intense intervals, not for hours at a time — & inadequate rest ain’t doing the immune system any favors at all.

  4. dodger on April 23, 2020 at 10:05

    Has anyone looked into the hypothesis that the ‘rona is actually a lab accident, and this may explain the (over)reaction of the governments?

    This hypothesis entered mainstream media recently when L. Montagnier expressed his opinion. Indeed, he is a very controversial figure in the scientific community, but that doesn’t mean it is false. On Monday, this headline appeared in The Times: “UK’s scientific advice on coronavirus to be secret until after pandemic”

    Lab accidents are more common than believed (SARS escaped Chinese labs at least twice, Singapore lab once, Taiwan lab once).

    There is an interesting paper by “anonymous scientists” published on github at this address: project-evidence [dot] github [dot] io and it’s worth looking at.

    There’s even a study out of Woohan lab, where they combine a SARS-like coronavirus with parts of HIV in order to make it infectious to human cells and bind to the ACE2 receptors.

    • Juhip on April 24, 2020 at 23:49

      UK’s scientific advice is secret because politicians know that they’ve fucked it up and try to cover themselves with “we follow scientific advice” crap. Moreover, there appears to be that government’s political advisers were included in the scientific advice group, namely one Dominic Cummings. There’s no conspiracy there, just a bunch of ideologically rigid incompetent morons. But hey, USA has finally found the solution to save their population from dying with corona, just inject everyone with an industrial bleach. Job done, no corona deaths anymore.



  5. Natasha on April 24, 2020 at 21:56

    I only fell for it for a few days. Then the whole thing started to stink. So many people are begging for more restriction, more punishments, when nobody stops to look at the real numbers. I never thought I would see a civilization fall.

    These doctors are good, honest. When I tried to share it, I was told that they have an agenda. Yeah, they do. Its called honesty.

    • Gerry on April 25, 2020 at 03:30

      Natasha I got through around 20 minutes of that video. The assumption that “those tested in the population” is representative of “the population as a whole” doesn’t seem a valid assumption to me. Surely the population of “those tested” would be higher than the general population? Because those with symptoms asking for a test would be more likely have the infection Their argument would make more sense if the their population of tested individuals was randomised. How can you extrapolate data in a linear fashion like that? I wish the journalist had pushed this point.



  6. Bacchal on April 24, 2020 at 19:01

    “Ironically, I’m finding that it’s largely the good women who’re waking up the most.”

    I’ve noticed this as well. I know two, both of whom trend toward the left. One is my close friend, seven months pregnant, and she’s smelled the bullshit on this from the very beginning, and I love her for it. The other is her close friend who just took part in the Michigan protest against Governor Whitmer up in Lansing. I’ve been sharing bits of your recent posts with her in order to further coax out her inner libertarian. Ha.

  7. Todd on April 25, 2020 at 07:08

    I treat cancer patients at what would be considered one of the bigger clinics in the US, and I’d venture the world for that matter. We were treating just above max capacity the first few weeks into this. Now we are so light, probably half capacity this week, that at a minimum, we’re asked to flex (give up) a whole day’s work, but in reality more than that. In my wildest dreams, I never would have thought cancer patients would be sidelined because the potential risk of viral death is trumping what would almost assuredly be death by cancer. Granted, these people are definitely at higher risk due to being immunocompromised, but I’d take my chances if I were in their shoes. I’d wager the hospital is a much safer place than the grocery store with all the PPE and additional measures being taken.

    • Geoff on May 1, 2020 at 14:35

      Todd – Thanks for posting that and for what you do at work. I think the adverse health outcomes that these restrictions have caused is a big untold side of the story. Inability or fear of accessing needed care, quality of life diminishment from the lack of elective procedures, mental health issues stemming from the pandemic (whether stress related for health care workers or those shut in with no meaningful human contact), even an alleged spike in domestic violence incidents. Is anyone keeping track of the adverse health outcomes attributable to the lockdown?



  8. Derg on April 26, 2020 at 01:15

    Richard do you know of reliable data for 2020 deaths per country by the flu vs. Covid?

  9. Joe Shuaib on April 28, 2020 at 10:15

    You had an excellent review a few years ago about excess free iron accumulating in the tissues and contributing to increased morbidity and mortality in older people. The best and safest iron chelator is inositol and its phosphates. Virus infection depletes inositol from the host cell in just 3 to 5 hours. Supplying inositol activates the inositol-requiring enzyme 1 long enough for a proper immune response to be mounted against the virus, decreasing apoptosis and inflammation, and enhancing innate immunity. Inositol is the safest, cheapest, most rapid solution to this global coronavirus disaster. Check out my research on youtube Inositol Against Corona Virus where I also show that AIDS is not immunodeficiency but inositol deficiency

  10. Resurgent on April 30, 2020 at 10:12

    This says it all

  11. Duane on April 30, 2020 at 07:10

    Richard, very good stuff. I am very intrigued by the artificial suppression of LDL and the role cholesterol plays in total health. Weird, but I would say of the 65 plus males that I know I would be 80% are on some form of statin drug. They all seem to have many other health issues.

  12. Sam on April 30, 2020 at 14:36

    It has been a while since your last post. Tell us about how things are going in that country.

    • Richard Nikoley on May 1, 2020 at 02:30

      Working on another. A roundup because of the complete insanity where it’s not at all about the virus anymore. It’s political only and ideological only.



    • Sam on May 7, 2020 at 18:15

      Are you alive? How’s the lockdown as well as the lady with 2 kids?



    • Sam on May 9, 2020 at 22:57

      Are you alive? It’s very rare for you to go this long without some type of post. I hope your girlfriends extended family didn’t do something to you.



    • Richard Nikoley on May 10, 2020 at 06:43

      Haha. No. Actually, just living IRL quite a lot.

      Plus, working on another writing project currently as well.



    • Sam on June 16, 2020 at 17:30

      So, how is your writing project going? Are you ready for the big reveal, whether it’s a book or a completely different focus, something like that?



  13. thomas on May 3, 2020 at 22:55

    “But everyone dies of something. Death is a part of life, and this child-like aversion to it at all costs is unbecoming of a truly living human being.”

    Memento Mori

  14. Chung-Ho Lee on May 6, 2020 at 10:25

    Hi Richard,

    Have you seen this fake news leftist media bullshit propaganda STAGED event regarding the COVID19 Plandemic/Scamdemic?? Below is a video from a woman who captured them in their lies and staged faked counter protest while doing Facebook Live. This scam has been exposed fully- This hoax is BUSTED- They are totally staging this- caught in the act. This needs to go VIRAL. There are also interviews exposes this Fauci piece of shit liar. Dr. Judith Mikovits was jailed for warning the pubic about something important back in 2011 that went against the Fauci led narrative. Fauci is beyond corrupt.

    Mainstream media is the enemy of the people, just as Trump noted.

  15. Chung-Ho Lee on May 6, 2020 at 10:29

    Whoops, here is the actual video: Sorry about that: ( Although the other link has the interview with this former assistant exposing Fauci’s corruption.

    This should go viral everywhere.

  16. Rob on May 23, 2020 at 08:06

    So, Richard, what do you propose people do instead?

    • Richard Nikoley on May 23, 2020 at 18:06

      Leave me and mine the fuck alone, that’s what.

      They want to quarantine, then stay the fuck home.

      They want social distancing, then stay the fuck away from others.

      They want masks, then wear a fucking mask.

      Clear?



  17. Chung-Ho Lee on June 29, 2020 at 11:00

    Definitely question the premise.

    HERE is slime-ball Bill Gates the architect of this Deep-State Psyop LAUGHING in OUR faces over the crash of the economy.He does not even try to hide it. This is S-I-C-K!!!! These psychopaths could not be more thrilled or delighted. Fauci, Gates, Birx-all have constant duping delight on their faces . Gates cannot even conceal his happiness over our misfortune anymore – he is just over the top with his sick joy over this.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MagDhNs65U

    This is the biggest crime ever perpetrated on the United States as well as the world. It will go on without end unless we act.

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