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Total Mortality: Obituaries, Medical Sales and Profits

Introduction

If there really and truly was a global pandemic in 2020 and now, beyond, to the current state of the globe, would it be more or less likely that the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) would readily publish fully audited and believable data on total mortality for 2020? I say, Occam’s Razor-like, that it would be a certainty. That it’s fudgie and cloudy and mysterious is tantamount to proof in itself that there’s something to hide and what this effort is going into to hide it, is that it’s is a big yawn.

So let’s take a look. My last post, Total Mortality: Ask Undertakers, is in just such vein. If global health and disease DATA GATHERERS can’t manage to publish reliable total death counts for 2020—which ended almost 9 months ago—because they defy characterization in terms of favorite kind of death (“Covid” death is the most loved and cherished type of death in all of human history), then you have to look at other data that highly correlates with total death.

That last posts counts as anecdotal. It’s one UK undertaker saying that 2020 was an unremarkable year for his business. He also claims that another 35 undertakers in his network say the same thing. That’s a lot of anecdotes by professionals. Assuming they all maintain business records, it can rise to actual data. More study is required.

Total Mortality

I’ve written this before with respect to Covid but it bears repeating: total mortality is a check on those manipulating death statistics for whatever they hope to gain from that. Because of my history in dietary issues going back to 2007, it quickly became evident that various advocates of certain dietary catechisms and ideologies do this all the time. They are always talking about cardiovascular risks, cancer risks, stroke risks, diabetes risks, etc. They are never talking about total mortality and even more especially, they are never talking about tradeoffs. So, for example, you were going to die of heart disease, but you drastically lowered your cholesterol, so now you die of cancer instead. Or, other stuff, or their respective inverses.

The point is, total mortality is a good check on all that wanking in public for profit and prestige. Let me show you.

In a very-big-picture sense, while it’s always good to assess your own health and those of loved ones, seek professional guidance when necessary, and act accordingly, the USA went from over 9.5 deaths per thousand in 1950 to just over 8 in the latter 2000s, hitting bottom around 2007. So, in some sense, all the hand-wringing about mortality is also a lot of wanking off in public. There are many, many factors to this decline in overall mortality and lots of folks deserve more credit than scorn. Think about that, Debbie Downer, next time you’re being a Party-Pooper. And what happened since 2007 is equally multi-factoral. For one, a lower death rate accumulates older and older people and until we solve for death in-itself, there are going to be years of culling. It’s seems to be shaping up to be a reverse trend, though, so many other factors pertain. I’ll leave those questions for another time.

Note this chart only goes up to 2020: Pre-Most-Popular-Cause-Of-Death-In-History. We are all so conditioned to be curious about causes of death. It’s completely natural. In nature, you want to know whether a death was because of something unavoidable like a flood, falling tree, forest fire, animal attack, et al; something that warrants caution; or Darwinian-Stupid-Culling. In our modern world, that valid curiosity extends, but the information is of far less quality and usefulness.

When we hear of a death, nobody says, “oh, well, another one bites the dust bump bump.” Your first reaction is HOW!?

Look at social media posts that announce a death but omit the cause. Check out the comments. As you scroll, you will sooner or later see people asking for the cause. We need to know. But, knowing that information is far less valuable than it would have been living in the uncivilized wild. I spoke to such differences in the value of information between our wild ancestors and us modern folk in my 20-minute talk at the Ancestral Health Symposium: Paleo Epistemology and Sociology.

Above that chart, above, is a disclaimer boxed in RED! “NOTE: All 2020 and later data are UN projections and DO NOT include any impacts of the COVID-19 virus.” Oh, my. “Impacts,” they warn. What does that mean?

Total mortality is merely a body count. Most simply, it is the number of human bodies that were alive, ticking, and breathing on January 1 who were not, by 12:00am, December 31. It’s the damn simplest number to compile, since it’s pretty damn easy to know when a human body is dead. You count them.

There are only two valid adjustments to that number:

  1. Correcting reporting or counting errors
  2. Those counted as missing on December 31 get moved to dead/presumed dead or found alive

Both of those are miniscule percentages.

Why is the US CDC being so coy?

The Crickets

This study was submitted on December 19, 2020! It completed peer review on January 18. It was published in the Spring 2021 issue of the Primary Doctors Medical Journal.

As far as I can tell, the world has been pretty silent about it, likely for good and nefarious reasons. I certainly have not heard about it until today, and I’ve been sniffing at total mortality since spring 2020.

Let’s take a look. First off, it was understandable that 2020 total mortality data was incomplete towards the end of 2020 and reasonably would have remained excusably incomplete for the 1st calendar quarter into 2021, since institutions like government exist on coerced funds—euphemism for license to steal—and never really have to be actually worth a fuck. But after 8 months into the following year and it’s still not definitive, accountable, or verifiable? Inexcusable, which is to say, even a thief ought to be embarrassed.

Here’s the abstract of the freely available paper.

Abstract

A pandemic that calls the attention of the public, and action by the medical field, is one that raises the total death rate above that of a typical year or season.  The COVID-19 era that began in early 2020 has received continuous and rapt attention in the United States for deaths that have occurred.   Has COVID-19 resulted in more deaths (known as “excess deaths”) than would have happened in a typical year?   An obstacle to answering that question is that COVID-19 testing is flawed and imprecise, for reasons discussed herein, and it is difficult to distinguish COVID-19 from other respiratory illnesses, due to symptoms and signs that are mostly indistinguishable from the common cold, flu or pneumonia.  It is possible that deaths of multiple causes have been ascribed to COVID-19, especially due to new peculiarities in mortality reporting during 2020 discussed herein.  Therefore, year-over-year comparison of deaths from all causes is likely the best analysis of available evidence of whether the United States is now confronted by a deadly pandemic.  The CDC mortality numbers are as yet unaudited by independent parties.  Therefore, we compare numbers of obituaries in 2020 and 2019, which are verifiable reports of deaths of specific, identified individuals.  We also examine the earnings statements of the largest medical suppliers in the US, to see if their sales of medical oxygen and other medical equipment prove a pandemic.  These data all indicate that there has been no pandemic in the US in 2020.

https://pdmj.org/papers/is_there_a_pandemic/

Its co-author with Boris Borovoy, Colleen Huber, posted about her paper on Substack just hours ago, signalling they still stand by their early work: There was no pandemic in 2020.

The bottom lines, from the published paper follow.

The CARES act allocated a $13,000 incentive to hospitals for a Covid diagnosis and $39,000 to shove pressurized air down their throats.

PCR testing above a threshold of about 25 for finding active, transmissible virus is total bullshit, known bullshit, yet cycles from 35-40 and above have been the global standard. “The magnitude of deception resulting from this misuse, overuse, over-cycling and over-advertising of PCR as a COVID-19 testing technique, along with frequent exhortations by politicians to ‘get tested,’ can hardly be overstated. This is the core of the problem of the public falsely believing that there is a pandemic, and that its name is COVID-19.”

Researcher Genevieve Briand was on the scent in November 2020 and submitted an article to Johns Hopkins, but because of its narrative-crushing content, was quickly taken down once the World Economic Forum, Bill, and Melinda called John S. Hopkins to issue marching orders.

So-called Covid deaths are hugely and enormously skewed to those aged 80 and above, kinda like all death, always. Basically, really old people died: sorry, but yawn.

There’s a site, USObit.com, a commercial site, that “provides information on death notices published in United States by various funeral homes.” Historically, their published obituaries account statistically for 20-25% of confirmed deaths per CDC. Only USObit, the largest, cooperated with the study request for data. “Other large obituary services did not respond to requests for information or refused to share information on total numbers of obituaries in 2019 and in 2020.” For USObit.com, they published 668,172 obituaries in 2019. In 2020, they published 548,100, an 18% decline. Looks like the UK undertakers are onto something…

For something called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) there sure was an acute drop in demand for FUCKING AIR!!! in 2020 and I doubt it’s because huge excess numbers of people stopped breathing it.

OK, how about medical supplies just in general? Like, all of them. One might expect that in a global pandemic, sales would have been up YUGE!!! in 2020. Nope, just the same year-over-year average growth with both an increasing population as well as more aged one.

In the end, I do believe that whatever Covid-19 really is, it’s something. My best guess is that it’s a new Coronavirus that’s distinct from the four others we know and hate and that we’ve all been infected with. They cause about 20% of what we call common colds, the other causes being made up largely by rhinoviruses and RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus). RSV is particularly nasty for kids. About 20% of cold infections are of still unknown specific cause.

In infants, RSV is the main cause of bronchiolitis. Most cases of bronchiolitis are mild and can be managed at home, but about 3% of cases will need hospital care. Worldwide, RSV is the second largest cause of death in children under one year of age (second only to malaria). In 2017 the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that RSV causes around 33 million serious respiratory infections a year. This results in more than 3 million hospitalisations and nearly 60,000 deaths in children under 5 years of age every year. Nearly half of these hospitalisations and deaths are in children under 6 months of age.

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/rsv

But pay no mind, Social Media Woke Justice Warrior. Covid might kill your 80-yo grany.

So, in the end, I think that COVID-19!!! is just another Corona on its mutating way per Farr’s Law and Antigenic Drift to become another common cold to hate, but not fear.

I will remind you of what I posted on this blog on March 16, 2020, over 18 months ago.

When it all came out, I looked at CDC info. The estimate was for an overall death rate of about 3%. That’s greater than influenza, but it’s also an early estimate. Also, the prediction was that it would take the old and sick, infants without developed immune systems, and the otherwise severely immunocompromised—pretty much like everything else. And that’s how it’s panning out. Even with the worst estimates I’ve seen of a mortality rate of 27% for those over 80, that means that 73% kick its ass, albeit under great discomfort.

https://www.freetheanimal.com/2020/03/my-musings-on-the-coronavirus-covid-19.html

There’s your reason tons of people read my stuff for a long time, now. Speaking of that…

A Poor Sales Pitch

I’m awful at sales and marketing. It’s a fact. On the other hand, I think I’m pretty good at communicating. I also have a decent sense of value and its opposite, ephemeral fakery.

I love shit that lasts. So, the short story is that in November of 2003, I discovered the new phenomenon of self-published blogging and I said to myself I WANT ONE!!!

I had already been an Internet Warrior of sorts going back to about 1993. Prodigy, Compuserv, America Online—and then dumping all of those for the Wild Wild West of USENET—the truest, freest, most unmoderated, least controlled Internet that ever existed, and it was a distributed network. But in about 1998, I dropped that too as my time was all taken up building my first successful business. In 2003, with time on my hands, blogging seemed perfect and the discovery to implementation took a couple of hours. I used a still-active service called Typepad. I paid for an account. That suited me for a long time. In 2009, I migrated to an independently-hosted WordPress.

Ever read my very first post? November 2, 2003. It’s short. I’ll quote it.

Well, It’s a start. For several years I have wanted to create a website to serve as the primary outlet for my ideas and commentary. So this is it, a weblog.

Will anything really become of it? Don’t know.

I’m not setting any goals or making any promises. I’d like to think I will spend some constructive time at this, but I guess we’ll see. I may also archive some of the other stuff I’ve written over the years.

Purpose. Well, it’s my outlet, and as such, I don’t think I’ll be opening up any of my posts to comments. I will be frank, as always. I’ll probably use some “naughty words” here and there, too. Good thing I have no plans on running for political office.

That’s good in another respect too. One of the things this blog will serve is a way to compile and organize my unconventional philosophic, religious, and political ideas.

Now, it’s time to go forth and look around for something to get all worked up about…

https://www.freetheanimal.com/2003/11/a_beginning.html

I kinda have to hand it to myself. Here, almost 19 years later and YEP!!! That’s what I intended and that’s what I’ve done and still do. Simple formula, really. No secret. The catch is, you have to love to write, be good at it, and do it a lot. 5,000 posts-a-lot.

This blog is my principal impediment to writing books. Oh. My. God. What a pitiful demotion that would be. I’ve tried, and well, did it a little. I hate it.

…(Here comes the pitch) So a few months ago I was pretty antsy. I got this crazy idea that owing to the cesspool of current media, both corporate and social, with its increasingly get-in-your way advertising, that enough people out there might turn to paid content that doesn’t grab every piece of data they can, crunch it, and figure out how to ceaselessly annoy the ever-livin’-shit out of them with pop-ups and targeted hype-bullshit…when they’re just scrolling to see how friends and family are getting along.

I acted quick and within days, turned this into a Membership Blog. It was a risk because failure was possible and that would be a bit embarrassing. To continue along after failure would have really emboldened the worthless wankers.

Nearing the 500-member mark, and a very nice percentage are in the paid levels, which are $6 per month, or $50 per year, 30% discount.

I will always write posts that are open to the public. I will always write posts that are for the Free level of membership. But I will increasingly be turning my efforts to the Paid levels of membership because they have a reasonable expectation to receive content that is exclusive to them and not so much subsidize those who aren’t paying. I have two substantial posts for paid members in draft now. Permanent Crisis Is The New Normal — Prosper Anyway #2 — Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) and 10 Days Since Deleting Social Media.

Kinda simple?

That said, everyone is welcome here regardless, and eyeballs are a kick. I luv ya, as they say. Just remember that your experience of not being inundated with pop-ups and so many ads you can’t even read the content is being paid for…not by you…but by fellow readers…

I’ll leave you with that.

Richard Nikoley

I'm Richard Nikoley. Free The Animal began in 2003 and as of 2021, contains 5,000 posts. I blog what I wish...from health, diet, and food to travel and lifestyle; to politics, social antagonism, expat-living location and time independent—while you sleep—income. I celebrate the audacity and hubris to live by your own exclusive authority and take your own chances. Read More

3 Comments

  1. Natalie Manis on September 23, 2021 at 10:53

    I stumbled across your blog when reading an article about paleo templates and phytic acid. I clicked a link, and what I see is a fairly generic blog landing page. I read the blurb at the bottom and I see the sentence “I celebrate the audacity and hubris to live by your own exclusive authority and take your own chances.” And immediately I looked at my boyfriend and said “This guy lives on a beach in Thailand and uses the word hubris in a sentence, i got $100 that says I’m going to click through here and see him debunking the pandemic to filth”.

    Isn’t it strange how I immediately knew that even though I ended up here from the most benign non-controversial place possible? Isn’t it odd how every person who can think critically and use words with more than 7 letters is screaming the exact same thing that you’re screaming, that I’m screaming, that millions of people are screaming? Moments like this let me know that I am in fact not losing my mind and it is in fact exactly as bad as I think it is, maybe worse. Problem is they gaslight us into oblivion by convincing us via censorship that we are the only one thinking what we’re thinking so we must be crazy.

    Your blogs are a hoot…new subscriber.

  2. Acidus on September 25, 2021 at 05:25

    Just came across this thought today. At this point any random theory that actually maps onto reality is better than the BS from alleged experts. Meanwhile mandate pushers continue to conflate vax status with equivalency to a negative test result and ignore observed reality. What a farce.
    https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/the-vaccinated-superspread-hypothesis

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